[Edit: Corrections made as needed. I guess I need to start looking into the nootropics.]
[Note: To see the evolution of my thoughts on this refer to my others posts on the UK gap: Occidentalist, 2011. The General Mental Ability (GMA) of Black British; Occidentalist, 2012. Is (global) “race realism” still tenable?; Occidentalist, 2012. Partially falsified. You will notice that I have been all over the place on this topic. The problem is that it’s difficult to get a hold of UK IQ data broken down by ethnicity and it’s even more difficult to interpret this data, given various confounding factors such as migrant status. I’ve contacted a number of psychologists working in the UK but no one seems to have — or is willing to share — information. (All of them were kind enough to reply, though.) Generally, seven points are noticeable concerning the Black-White gap: (1) Longitudinal studies show a small to nonexistent IQ gap between ages 3 and 11 (e.g., a Black-White gap ranging from 0-0.5 SD). (2) The Black-White Longitudinal IQ gap does not systematically increase with age (between 3 and 11) as it does in the US, but it either stays the same, decreases, or bounces around. (3) Longitudinal studies show a small to nonexistent achievement gap between ages 11 and 16 (e.g., A Black-White achievement test scores/GCSE point gap ranging from 0 to 0.35 SD). (4) Some cross sectional data shows a small achievement gap between ages 11 to 16. (5) Cross sectional data shows a moderate sized IQ gap by age 11 (e.g., a Black-White IQ gap of around 0.5 SD). (6) Some cross sectional shows a large adult gap, but there is little consistency across data — with points ranging from 0.3 SD to 1.7 SD — calling this data into question. (7) There has been a steep decline in the magnitude of the IQ gaps and achievement gaps over time.
My interpretation is: (1) There are, at most, small genetic differences, with respect to intelligence, between Black and White children born in the UK. I base this on the following: (a) There are currently trivial to moderate sized IQ gaps between children, ages 3-11, born in the UK as evidenced by longitudinal studies (e.g., MCS and EPPE 3-11) and as evidenced by achievement score gaps (e.g., KS2 Math and Reading test score differences). (b) The overall magnitude of the gaps are diminishing decade by decade across age cohorts, which suggests that some of the current gaps between children ages 3-11 have an environmental origin (for reference, compare the data in Lynn 2008 with Occidentalist 2012). (2) There are, at most, small genetic differences, with respect to intelligence, between Black and White adolescents and young adults born in the UK. I base this on the following: (c) The data from the mentioned longitudinal studies does not agree with the conjecture that the gaps increase with age. (d) This induction is confirmed by the finding, based on the LSYPE, that the gap in achievement scores, scores which are highly correlated with g within populations, do not increase with age. (e) Further confirmation comes from cross-sectional data, which shows trivial gaps between Blacks and Whites and yet large gaps, as expected by a genetic hypothesis, between children in line with the skill level/educational level of their parents. (3) There are, at most, small genetic differences, with respect to intelligence, between Black and White adults born, respectively, in Africa and in Europe. I base this on the following: (e) There are modest to large adult IQ gaps in the UK. Since these are not due to the low performance of Blacks born in the UK (points 1 and 2), it stands to reason that these are due to the low performance of recent African immigrants, who have low IQs due to being reared in low IQ affecting environments. This is evidence, then, that Black migrants to the UK are not super-duper genetically selected and unrepresentative, with respect to IQ, of their native populations. (f) As further evidence against super-duper selection theory, I present the result of Somalian refugees, who presumably were not very selected and who perform only 0.5 SD below Whites in measures of scholastic achievement.
As much as I disrelish the idea of Lynn et alia being wrong (about genetic racial differences), I can’t but help conclude that they mostly are (especially Nyborg with his ludicrous figures).
I sent out a number of inquiries for UK IQ data broken down by ethnicity but came up empty handed. Steve Strand, though, an accomplished educational psychologist who frequently conducts research for the Department of Education, forwarded me several of his recent papers on ethnic achievement gaps. For example, here, here, here, and here. It will be noticed that the standardized differences, presented in these papers, between ethnoracial groups (e.g., Blacks, Whites, South Asians, etc.) are small to trivial compared to the differences between classes.
When it comes to the gaps, it’s informative to look at the findings from longitudinal studies, as these are less confounded by migrant status and as these indicate how the gaps vary as a function of age. Disentangling race and migrate status is vital as what is of interest is the performance of ethnic/racial groups reared in roughly the same environment. And naturally, discerning the relation between the magnitude of the gaps and age is important given the relation between environmentality and age, within populations.
In the longitudinal studies, many of which can be analyzed online here, we see that, rather than increase with age, the gaps dissipate:
The first two points above shows the gaps based on the Millenium cohort study, which began in 2000-2001. (Notice the dopey new face of England shown on the MCS site.) The children were tested with the British Ability Scale. Missing is the Age 7 data, which I previously linked to. It will be noticed that between ages 5 and 7 the gaps narrow, not widen. The age 11 follow up for the MCS is being conducted this year and should resolve the issue of whether the IQ gaps narrow or widen with age. The Last three points show the results from the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England, which began in 2004. The cognitive measures reported are the Key Stage 2, 3 and 4 (GCSE) scores. You can see an alternative analysis of the data, broken down by test scores and point scores in tables 1 and 2 here. It should be noted that GCSE scores are derived from both achievement test data and other evaluations; this renders the relationship between population differences in GCSE and IQ scores ambiguous, even though IQ scores correlate highly with a latent GCSE factor within population. Using just the KS2 (age 11) data, which is based exclusively on math and reading test score results, the Black-White gap is a mere 0.3 SD. Other Longitudinal studies, however, such as EPPE 3-11, show, by age 11 (2008), no differences in Math and Reading ability tests. Refer to table Table A3.1: Cognitive attainments at the end of Year 5 by ethnic group, here.
Needless to say, the above is not what a moderate to strong genetic hypothesis (e.g., Lynn’s 50/50 global genetic/environmental hypothesis) would predict. In response to the above, defenders of hereditarian differences inevitably reply with the epicycle that immigrants are supper-duper selected. When I point to the performance of groups which are clearly not very selected such as Surinamese in Holland or Somalians in the UK, it’s more epicycles. It might be the case that there are some genetic differences, but based on the migrant data the magnitude of the difference between representative samples is likely small.
Generally, it’s not going to be the presence of racial differences that ushers in the twilight of the European peoples, as Lynn has argued, but the absence of them. Expect complete integration to move on pace.